技术面分析周报 (12月5日,周二)

前言

 

我们主要的分析方式是利用小时间级别的走势来确认大时间框架中的多空力量,这也是我们一直以来稳定盈利的关键。这些方法的精妙之处需要花一些时间理解,因为市场行情不断变化,每一个交易机会都是独一无二的。但是,当你成功掌握这些规律,就可以避免很多不必要的亏损。以下是我们在技术层面上关注的重点:

  • 支撑阻力位的突破和测试(基于具体品种)
  • 趋势线的突破和测试
  • 多空双方在图表上表现出的实体和影线 (我们主要通过观察小时间级别的密集排列的塔线或吊线,以确认大时间级别上的支撑阻力位)

本报告中重点观察的小时间级别为15分钟或1小时线,大时间级别一般指4小时线以上。突破走势会在超出某一特定点位1-3个点(pip,也称作“大点”)之后才能确认。

 

 

EURUSD (欧元兑美元)

 

周一欧元需求走软,欧元兑美元明显走低。随后,4小时级别上空头试图突破附近的中线支撑1.1850以及下方支撑趋势线(自1.1553向上)的支撑。最终汇价止跌于1.1829,并重新拉回。

在周线框架上,欧元依然在周线阻力区间1.1880-1.1777内交投。我们认为多头会逐步复苏, 并推动汇价上行至周线级别强阻力位1.2044。正如您看到的,日线支撑位在1.1878,被昨日的跳空低开打破。尽管如此,还是可以从昨天收出的小线型上看出一些卖空意愿。

建议:鉴于周线结构指向上行,目前4小时级别如果能运行到上升通道的支撑区域,则视作回调,多仓思路比较清楚,但唯一的问题是日线上的阻力。从目前点位开始建多仓虽然很有把握,但我们还是保守一些,在日线阻力没有突破前,选择场外观望。

重大数据提示(北京时间):美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:无

空仓:无

 

 

GBPUSD (英镑兑美元)

 

周一BBC报道说,英国脱欧谈判不会达成协议,英镑兑美元未能维持在1.35上方。梅和容克周一会晤时没有否认这一报道,使得英镑跌至1.3413低点。

然而,4小时K线似乎受到下降通道(自中期高点1.3450向下)上沿此前阻力变换支撑的托举作用,未能大幅下探。周线仍然受到通道(自1.2673向上)阻力压制。尽管此通道在9月份已被突破过,但本周依旧会抑制买盘,使得英镑进一步走低。假设周线通道阻力保持有效,那么日线价格上可能会进一步下行测试1.3371。上行方面,日K线有上升空间,即1.3618阻力位下方。

建议:从现价建立多仓是比较冒险的,除了1.35关口以外,还有周线通道阻力的压制。

与周一的结论大致相同,我们不考虑多仓思路,而是寻找4小时级别的空单思路。在我们看来,4小时上出现K线大幅收阴并且实体饱满,则可证明空头资金入场,有可能进一步下探1.34,更远的目标位在10月份开盘价1.3367。

重大数据提示(北京时间):英国服务业PMI(17:30);美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:无

空仓:关注4小时级别是否下破1.3450,如出现回测线型,可在随后的实体阴线中入场;(止损:上影线顶端)

 

AUDUSD (澳元兑美元)

 

从今天上午的4小时图上可以看出,澳元兑美元小幅低开,最终下破0.76关口。此后,围绕0.76进行了一次窄幅整理。由于周一的走势没有太多看点,下面的报告基本回顾昨天的思路。

我们关注的点位是周线斐波那契(从0.8125向下拉)回调位0.7475,以及周线通道的下沿支撑。此外,“倒N型”161.8%的位置0.7496也将成为重要支撑(见黑色箭头)。

仔细观察日线框架走势,可以看出价格可能正在形成一个“倒N”空头形态,目前收在127.2%的位置,也在日线阻力区间0.7695-0.7657内。

建议:根据技术面指向,多空局势不明朗。

然而,我们还是会在日线上寻找卖空机会,特别是“倒N”完成点的地方。反之,如果是多单思路的话,由于周、日两个级别的大位置,0.75关口非常合适试多。

重大数据提示(北京时间):澳联储利率决议(11:30);美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:0.75区域;(止损放50-70个点)

空仓:0.7680区域;(止损:0.7720)

 

 

USDJPY (美元兑日元)

 

周一美元兑日元相当激进地上涨60点,今早延续升势到113.08高位,之后受美股拖累下跌。这也和4小时级别阻力区间113.14-112.86有关。

目前4小时级别位于10月份开盘价112.64下方。从这里看,下一个下行目标将会是112关口,随后是4小时支撑区间111.37-111.56。

日线阻力区间112.78-112.43在昨天冲高后无以为继,不断地下挫,日线111.66成为关注焦点。

建议:就4小时框架而言,112.64下方的位置如果被小线型回测,则是空头进场的绝佳机会。下方日线和周线的支撑都比较远,有充足的下跌空间。如果4小时上出现实体饱满的阴线,我们会很愿意建立空仓,第一获利目标位在112,随后是日线支撑111.66。

重大数据提示(北京时间):美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:无

空仓:112.64区域(等待4小时级别出现实体饱满的阴线);(止损:上影线顶端)

 

USDCAD(美元兑加元)

 

对于经常阅读我们报告的交易者朋友们来说,可能还记得我们此前说过在1.27如果有回测信号,可做空的思路。原因如下:

  • 周线框架上,上行动能依然受阻于2778,这个阻力位最早可以追溯到2004年初,所以不能轻视。上周的行情看上去向是强劲的卖盘,本周可能进一步抛售。如果进一步下挫,则可能看至周线支撑区间1.2432-1.2558。如果该区域发挥作用,可能会阻止空头势力。
  • 上周五的涨幅被完全吞没,日线价格形成长阴,或许打开了本周进一步下滑至2598(从高点向下拉的斐波那契回调位61.8%的位置1.2618就在附近)支撑位的空间。

由于4小时图上周一收盘跌破1.27,触及低位1.2656,并随后重新测试1.27阻力,阴线实体较饱满,因此我们已经在1.2672做空,止损放在1.2717。

建议:正如昨天报告中强调,第一个获利位在1.26关口,其次是周线支撑1.2558。

重大数据提示(北京时间):美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00);加拿大贸易帐(21:30)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:无

空仓(已持有实单):1.2672;(止损:1.2717)

 

 

USDCHF(美元兑瑞郎)

 

首先,周线时间框架上显示,虽然上周尾盘接近0.9770支撑,但周一大幅回调展示出上行空间。从技术层面来看, 这可能与周线支撑区间0.9704-0.9783有关(绿色圆圈)。然而在多头推高价格前,日线价格需要克服阻力0.9864。这个阻力位也是历史上重要的位置,我们期待从这里看到一些空头的行动。

在4小时级别上,本周开盘时出现了跳空缺口,破了0.98关口后重新测试。随后因市场情绪改善,瑞郎延续涨势,达到下压趋势线(自1.0017向下)的位置。

建议:在周线结构上做多的话,因为当前价格还在测试日线阻力,且4小时还被下压趋势线压制,所以涨幅不会很大,我们觉得多单没有把握。尽管4小时和日线都显示出下跌基调,但空单思路同样尴尬,因为周线强支撑就在下方不远处。

在出现更好的思路前,我们选择观望。

重大数据提示(北京时间):美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:无

空仓:无

 

 

 

US30 (道琼斯30指数)

 

道指本周跳空高开74点,这吸引了更多买盘,最终看到道指创出新高24532。美国股指随后小幅下挫,填补了跳空缺口。

投资者认为税改法案在不同行业都产生印象,其中银行业从中获益最大,金融股本周开局良好。

在上周的交易中,美股表现强劲,在周线框架上创造出23241-23486的看多集中区域。从4小时框架上可以看出,该指数上周五回落4小时支撑区间23891-23956。

建议:由于4小时支撑23891-23956已经证明其作用,我们将继续观察本周可能出现的多头资金大量入场。考虑到4小时价格可能回踩下方支撑位,为了确认多头意图,需要等待出现实体较大的阳线才会触发买入。

重大数据提示(北京时间):美国贸易帐(21:30);美国ISM非制造业PMI(23:00)

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:23891-23956(建议4小时出现实体较大的阳线后入场);(止损:下影线底端上)

空仓:无

 

XAUUSD (黄金)

 

在周一的交易时段内,黄金大部分时间徘徊在8月和11月开盘价1269.3/1269.9之上。然而呢,正如你看到的,4小时多头在晚些时候继续发动攻势,似乎有望挑战10月开盘价1279.1。

另外,更宏观的级别来看,黄金上周形成了一个看起来不错的吞噬阴线。

这周线型的形成会让1251.7-1269.3看多的交易者很担忧。不过我们不需要考虑太多,因为周线走势依然受到周线通道(从1122.8向上)的支撑,推动价格抬升。另一方面,价格适中无法创新高,而是不断徘徊和回测,这意味空头依然可能有压倒性优势。

上周的下跌使得日线支撑区域1251.7-1265.2近在咫尺,这个位置也是日线斐波那契回调位61.8%的位置,即1263.3。

建议:我们认为,现在市场还不宜入单。考虑不同级别形态相冲突,在这里入场是没有太多依据的。

因此,我们别无选择,只会保持观望。

操盘指引(我们团队的实盘订单):

多仓:无

空仓:无

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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